On Thursday (2/24) North and Central CA had set waves at chest high on the sets and fairly clean and lined up but still with some warble in the water. The population density of the region Centre is 64,36 inhabitants per km. May is one of the most active times of year for Southern Hemisphere swells, and this week is showing us just that. NW wind 5 ktveering to E after midnight. 16-day surf forecast for Pacific Beach (PB) in South San Diego. Saturday the 6th should run chest high at south facing breaks with occasional head high sets at standouts. The period was dominated by La Nia conditions, which tend to enhance hurricane activity in the . It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator. Ian - the nation's third most expensive weather disaster on record - is among 29 hurricanes, including 13 major hurricanes, churned out by the Atlantic from 2020 to 2022, or roughly 30% more than the average for a typical three-year span. Swell Direction: 315 degrees. Kuril Island Gale The transition to Summer is finally starting. Most south facing spots were running waist to chest high. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. SW wind 10 kt. Swell and SW 1 ft in the afternoon. For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video. Remember, this report is only made possible by donations from readers like you (see why), which ensures this report will be here when you need it. Swell W 5 to 6 ft. FRI It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator. Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (5/3) early with period 18 secs building to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later in the day (4.0 ft). TODAY West Central North Atlantic continental shelf and slope waters. PZZ300-290400. W swell 8 ft at 11 seconds. Career Opportunities, SYNOPSIS FOR THE SOUTHERN OREGON COASTAL WATERS, Surface Currents via High Frequency Radar, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. On Wed AM (3/2) a broader gale is to be developing just west of the dateline with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft at 42N 164.5E aimed east. Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/23) The latest images depict a broad generic stream of cool water on the equator extending west from just off Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 140W then weaker west of there before dissipating on the dateline. W 5 ft. FRI sgi_tile=1; But we also have some very late season WNW groundswell mixing in during the same timeframe, and wintertime spots could get pretty fun. Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru and building in intensity and weaker over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. afternoon. afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. Still some fun sized surf out there as that south swell eases and hangs in there, and more short-period NW swell shows. A summertime pattern looks to be setting up. Sea Level Anomalies: (4/23) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5-10 cms over the entirety of it's width with a pocket of +10 cms in the west and a pocket of +10-20 cms in the east extending north of Panama and south to Chile. Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers. And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Coastal waters from Florence Oregon to Point St. George California and westward 60 nm. You can now get all the best MSW features and more on Surfline. MJO/ENSO Discussion The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled. the afternoon, thenbecoming 2 ft or less. Swell fading Sun (5/7) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Over the next 72 hours swell from two weather systems are to be in play (see Kuril Island Gale and Gulf Gale below). Conditions still dont look favorable but that could change. Swell fading Tues (5/9) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). WED As southern hemisphere ground swell lingers from the most recent Antarctic swell, NW ground swell is already starting to fill in from that system that, although initially sitting just 1,100 nautical miles from SoCal, will dive south into SoCal as a cut-off low shortly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): That low is now diving south and starting to cut off from the jetstream, visible from space this morning on NOAA satellite (image from NOAA GOES): Circled in red we can see that cut-off low, starved of moisture, but with enough being drawn into it to bring rain to SoCal this week. Overview . Still lots of swell over the weekend, but morning conditions are trending less favorably. 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc, https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html, http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and clean but very soft. SW wind 10 kt. SoCal Forecast Wednesday the 10th, so far, is expected to see SW ground swell building during the day, about chest max at south facing spots. Eglise Notre Dame. W wind 5 kt. National Weather Service Medford, OR. Current Conditions 10 to 12 ft at 13 secondssubsiding to 9 ft at 12 seconds in Stennis Space Center, MS, 39529 A small started developing over the Northwestern Gulf on Wed AM (4/26) producing 35-40 kt west winds with seas building to 24 ft at 48N 166.75W aimed east. More swell is looking likely out the back too, just nothing as big as what we are going to see this weekend. Southern California is for good reason surfing's second home after Hawaii and the base of much of the industry. Updated: Fri, 28-Apr-2023 08:47:32 UTC. Swell is tracking north. Swell Direction: 192 degrees, North CA: Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). In the evening southwest winds were 50 kts solid over the Central South Pacific with 34 ft seas at 62S 166W aimed east-northeast. waves 2 ft or less. See it Here Select from the other forecast maps (on the right) to view the temperature, cloud cover, wind and precipitation for this country on a large scale with animation. Chance of showers. Wind waves N 4 ft at 5 seconds. See chart here - link. Wind waves 4 to 7 ft. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. DeepSwell offers free surf reports and long-range forecasts including swell, tide, wind and weather reports updated multiple times daily. On Thurs AM (4/20) south winds were fading from 30+ kts moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 29 ft at 52.75S 139.5W aimed northeast. If anything, another pulse of +3 degs anomalies were building in the far West Pacific. Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/29) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and rebuilding compared to weeks past with a tongue extending west over the Galapagos continuing along the equator reaching to 138W (results of Kelvin Wave #1). W swell 11 ft at 13 seconds. A few peaks to track down through the workweek, but conditions dont look great then. TUE The longterm trend has been steadily downward. NW wind 20 to 25 ktbecoming N 10 kt. Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future. Alternatively, visit our basic swell maps of Global-Pacific where each view becomes a separate image. This is an upgrade from previous runs. North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (4/30) building to 2.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0 ft) early but quickly getting buried in local northwest windswell. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean when the sets came with decent form but a little soft. Slight chance of showers. Also on Fri PM (4/28) a low pressure system started developing in association with trough over the Western Gulf producing 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas building. Surface Analysis Amazing. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. NW wind swell though is a possibility on the long range, potentially up to head high; however, that is too far out to call right now from a close-proximity pattern. In the evening south winds to be lifting northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 50S 145W aimed northeast. National Data Buoy Center Friday the 5th into Saturday the 6th remains on track to see decent sized southern hemi ground swell from this system that has stayed the course for more than a week on the models, peaking off Antarctica yesterday as it traveled north on an ideal course for SoCal surf (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data): Size is coming in at chest high for most south facing breaks and head high at times at standouts by Saturday the 6th (chest max Friday the 5th with rare pluses), angled from 210 with periods 16-18 seconds. Swell and S 1 ft in the afternoon. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to bud a surface low near New Caledonia over the short term, generating more quality E-E/NE swell as the low drifts through the South Pacific slot and into the Tasman. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. Wind The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status in the core of the KWGA on 2/26 while expanding in coverage to strong or more status holding through the end of the model run on 3/3. Oahu: Expect swell arrival late on Mon (5/1) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs right before sunset (3.5 ft). A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. 40. The south swell will slowly ease Sunday the 8th and into the workweek. Possible small swell from Pt Conception northward. Swell and S Forecast (4/30) - Temps are slowly climbing above neutral (0.2 degs today) and are forecast rising to +1.49 degs in July and +2.35 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. Moderate NW ground swell is due Thursday into Friday. The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. NOAA declared La Nina dead. Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Equatorial Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast 4 to 5 ft. PZZ376-011600 The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.15 degs in June then rising to -0.75 degs in July and fading before holding near -1.0 degs beyond. Level up to Premium to unlock this and other useful features: Long-range forecasts are available to DeepSwell Premium members. Check out our Privacy Policy for more information, 2022 Surfable and SURFERforecast. National Weather Service Medford, OR Slight chance of showers through the day. On Tues AM (2/22) west winds were 40-45 kts half way to the dateline with seas 39 ft at 38.75N 162.5E aimed east. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 6 ft at 11 seconds. Beyond 72 hours another trough is forecast developing over the Southeast Pacific on Fri (5/5) being fed by 130 kt winds and lifting north on Sat (5/6) offering good support for gale development. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +2.41 and has not been negative (yet) in a long time, after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. Tiny North Dateline Gale A gale developed in the Southwestern Pacific with swell from it fading in California (see Southwestern Pacific Gale below). Current Conditions A south wind is expected in the morning across OC and San Diego, but it could be manageable. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days). As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. West facing breaks should run waist to chest high. Swell DIrection: 306-309 degrees, North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (2/26) building to 3.4 ft @ 20 secs late (7.0 ft). There could be a few peaks to track down, but again the winds dont look great. Background swell was hitting Hawaii from undetermined source. IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.704 degs today and have bottomed out. 30- to 40-knot winds . Water temps were running 60-62 in much of SD and OC yesterday. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry'). Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean): Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist to chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but inconsistent and weak. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. Chance of showers. That jet-bend on this model for the 8th-9th of this month, falls in an 8- to 9-day swell window for SoCal; hence, swell ETA by the 17th. Residuals on Mon (2/28) fading from 4.3 ft @ 13 secs (5.5 ft). Freezing level falling steadily from there down to 4,000 ft on 3/6. 1 ft in the afternoon. Tropical Update 2. Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table. Another gale is forecast developing in the deep South Central Pacific on Mon PM (5/1) producing 30 kt southwest winds and seas building. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Waters from Florence to Cape Blanco OR from 10 to 60 nm of more interest is swell pushing east originating from a broad system that developed just off the Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (2/22) producing 39 ft seas aimed east then dissipating before reaching the dateline. El Nino is developing. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. TONIGHT Best size for both of these swells will be Friday the 6th and Saturday the 7th. Summer - Head high or better. 6 ft. THU We provide 7-day Wind, Wave and Weather Forecasts to help sailors with their passage planning and weather routing. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West Pacific at 125E at +5 degs. SST Anomaly Projections NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131, Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ, Pieces Featuring Stormsurf: KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E) 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. 218 AM PDT Mon May 1 2023. Probably the best day to target throughout the forecast. Jetstream Wind waves 2 ft or Still plenty of swell out there though. On Thurs AM (5/4) southwest winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 40S 132W aimed northeast. Swell NW There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. Swell Direction: 188 degrees, Southern CA: Swell arriving early Fri (5/5) with period 18 secs early building to 1.9 ft @ 17 secs at sunset (3.0-3.5 ft). NW wind 20 ktveering to N after midnight. Overview South America ; Islands ; Sign In Try Premium for free. Wednesday the 10th into Thursday the 11th could see the next southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that should break off Antarctica in a few days (model by FNMOC): Size so far is coming in at chest+ with swell angled from 195 and periods 16 seconds. 13 Feb 2023 - Rent from people in Sceaux-du-Gtinais, France from 17/night. afternoon. TAO Array: (4/30) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady if not backtracking slightly from 180W (previously 170E) to 177E. N wind 15 to 20 kt. The 7 day forecast has moderate east anomalies holding over the bulk of the KWGA to east of 150E till 5/3 then pushing east with modest west anomalies developing filling most of the KWGA by 5/3 and then getting strong over the for West Pacific on 5/5 wand holding through the last day of the model run on 5/7. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. Swell from it is poised for Hawaii. You can customize the wave and wind maps with overlays for wind arrows, pressure and general weather for surfing. A gale started developing east of New Zealand on Thurs AM (4/27) with 35-40+ kt south winds and seas 30 ft at 48S 166.25W aimed northeast. Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/30) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh high and somewhat lined up and weak with texture on it. Models are still diverged, possible morning window, but at this time conditions look mostly unfavorable. St. George CA out 10 nm The two have conspired to produce a thick morning marine layer with burn-off not likely at the coast today, with max beach temps struggling to reach the low 60s. The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. afternoon. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days). E wind 5 ktveering to SW. Wind waves 2 ft or less. East winds up to 15 mph . Subscribe to See 10-Day Forecasts for Hawaii, California and The West Coast, We dont share your personal information with anyone. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022. You are the reason this report exists. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. This model suggests we are at or almost past the peak of La Nina temperatures this Winter. Updated: Fri, 28-Apr-2023 08:53:54 UTC. Something to monitor. TUE NIGHT Good odds for swell radiating northeast towards the US West Coast, Central America and South America. Hourly Multiple Swells Wind Highlighting Model. Unfortunately again, most mornings do look to start out with some onshore southerly wind. Wind Wind waves 2 ft or less. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179E. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. Friday the 5th is expected to run chest high at most breaks from a mix of NW and SW ground swells. 000 fzps40 phfo 010302 hsfsp high seas forecast national weather service honolulu hi 0530 utc mon may 01 2023 superseded by next issuance in 6 hours seas given as significant wave height.which is the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves.